A comprehensive analysis of 40+ prediction markets tracking the US-Israel-Iran confrontation. Market-implied probabilities aggregated from over $100M in trading volume.
Based on aggregated Polymarket prediction data — $100M+ total volume across 40+ active markets — the conflict between the US-Israel coalition and Iran has entered a decisive phase. Markets price a 76% probability the conflict ends by June 30, 2026, with a ceasefire expected by April-May.
Markets assign 87% probability that Iran strikes Israel on March 10, with Isfahan nuclear facility (87%) as the most likely US/Israel target in Iran. The Fordow nuclear facility has a 43% strike probability by month-end.
Ceasefire probability rises steadily from 5% (by March 15) to 67% (by June 30). Trump announces end of military operations has an 83% probability. Markets see diplomacy winning over prolonged conflict.
Active prediction markets tracking military engagements, strikes, and ground operations between the US, Israel, and Iran.
Markets tracking ceasefire negotiations, diplomatic meetings, and conflict resolution timelines between the US, Israel, and Iran.
Ends in 21 days — strong consensus on near-term de-escalation announcement
View on Polymarket →Low probability of direct talks within 3 weeks
View on Polymarket →All timeline options resolved Yes — Strait has already been closed or market conditions met
View on Polymarket →Markets tracking the stability of the Iranian regime, potential leadership changes, and the future of Iran's political structure.
Near-zero probability — regime maintaining communication blackout
View on Polymarket →Markets tracking Iran's nuclear capabilities, enrichment activities, and potential diplomatic deals on the nuclear program.
Markets price an 87% chance Iran strikes Israel today (March 10) and an 87% chance Isfahan nuclear facility is targeted by the US/Israel. The Strait of Hormuz has already been closed. This is a hot conflict.
Despite active hostilities, markets see 76% probability the conflict ends by June 30 and 83% probability Trump announces an end to operations. Ceasefire probability reaches 67% by June. The market consensus: intense but short.
Only 23% chance the Iranian regime falls by June, though leadership change probability reaches 61% by year-end. Mojtaba Khamenei (39%) is the leading candidate for next leader, suggesting continuity within the system.
A nuclear deal before 2027 is priced at 45% — the most uncertain major question. Enrichment halt probabilities rise from 4% (March) to 31% (June). The nuclear dimension could determine whether this ends in diplomacy or prolonged standoff.
These probabilities are backed by over $100 million in total trading volume across 40+ active prediction markets on Polymarket. The largest markets — Strait of Hormuz ($35.5M), Iranian Regime Falls ($29M+), US-Iran Ceasefire ($18.5M), Iran Strikes Israel ($12.9M) — have substantial liquidity, lending credibility to the price signals.